Value Modelling Spatiotemporal Changes of Carbon Storage in the Philippine Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Sector from 2003-2010

Abstract

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) are vital in the issue of climate change due to their role as natural carbon sinks. However, land conversion at the expense of natural ecosystems has resulted to steady changes of carbon storage in the country which have not been fully quantified. Integrated ecosystem services value mapping has tremendous potential to aid policy and decision makers by incorporating carbon storage and sequestration values in the decision–making process. This would allow them to make more objective decisions involving land conversion based on the aggregate values and the economic trade–offs between the various allocations of natural ecosystems and agroecosystems which would not have been considered otherwise. Changes in agriculture, forestry, and other land uses in the Philippines from the years 2003 to 2010 have resulted to a decrease in carbon stock in the country’s AFOLU sector. Using the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model, the mean estimate for the total carbon lost from aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil organic matter, and detritus carbon pools due to spatial changes in the AFOLU sector is 246.4 Tg C. The mean estimated value of the carbon lost and emitted into the atmosphere is around PhP 311.1 billon using the market price of carbon, PhP 1,017.4 billion using the average social cost of carbon at 3% discount rate, and PhP 3,026.8 billion for the 95th percentile social cost of carbon at 3% discount rate. The study suggests the need for more effective management of the country’s AFOLU sector to improve net carbon storage and sequestration in the country.