The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate an epidemiological “rtdSim” model for tungro, a vector-born virus disease of rice, aiming at producing a seasonal tungro risk prediction for the Bicol Region of the Philippines. The present study highlights the potential for developing a SCF-based early warning system for rice diseases, enabling better decision-making for prevention of potential disease outbreaks on a seasonal scale with integrated pest management (IPM) strategies, e.g. switching to resistant varieties and using synchronous planting, rotations, or fallow periods to avoid peak risk pressure.